Mastering Product Backlog Forecasting in Azure Boards
Mastering Product Backlog Forecasting in Azure Boards
Teams use the forecast tool in Azure Boards to help with their sprint planning efforts. By plugging in a value for the team velocity, the forecast tool shows which items in the backlog can be completed within future sprints. Both tools are team-specific and rely on the team’s ability to estimate backlog items. Once your team has completed a sprint or two, they can use the team velocity to forecast how much of the backlog they can finish within the upcoming sprints.
In this comprehensive guide, we’ll cover:
- Required and Recommended Activities: Explore the essential setup and team practices needed to support effective forecasting.
- Forecasting Upcoming Sprints: Step-by-step instructions on using the forecast tool to plan your product backlog across multiple sprints.
- Reviewing Forecast Results: Tips for analyzing the forecast output and understanding any discrepancies.
- Determining Required Velocity: Leverage the forecast tool to estimate the team velocity needed to complete your entire backlog.
Let’s dive in!
Required and Recommended Activities
Before attempting to forecast your team’s backlog, you’ll need to have the following in place:
Required:
- Define iteration paths (sprints) and configure team iterations: Ensure your sprints are of the same duration and select enough future sprints to cover your entire product backlog.
- Define and estimate backlog items: Create and size your backlog items, making sure they are assigned to the current sprint (Iteration) and your team’s default Area Path.
- Update the status of backlog items as work progresses: Only items in the Proposed or In Progress state categories will be shown on the velocity chart.
Recommended:
- Define and size backlog items to minimize variability
- Determine how your team wants to treat bugs: If you choose to treat bugs like requirements, they will be counted in the Velocity chart and forecasting.
- Set your team’s area path: The forecast tool will use your team’s default settings to include or exclude items.
- Avoid creating a hierarchy of backlog items and bugs, as this can cause issues with reordering and nesting. Instead, maintain a flat list and use Features to group requirements or user stories.
- At the end of each sprint, update the status of completed backlog items and move incomplete items back to the product backlog for future consideration.
Forecasting Upcoming Sprints
To forecast your product backlog, follow these steps:
- Navigate to your team’s backlog in Azure Boards (Boards > Backlogs), ensuring you’ve selected the correct project and team.
- Choose the appropriate backlog level: Stories (Agile), Issues (Basic), Backlog items (Scrum), or Requirements (CMMI).
- Turn on the Forecasting option in the view options menu.
- Enter your team’s predicted velocity, which you can estimate based on the Velocity widget.
The forecast tool will then draw lines for each future sprint, showing how much work your team can complete in those sprints based on the provided velocity. Items above the first line are already in progress for the current sprint, while items between the first and second forecast lines indicate what can be completed in the named sprint.
Reviewing Forecast Results
Take the time to carefully review the forecast results:
- Check the results manually to understand any discrepancies between your expectations and the forecast tool’s output.
- Examine the amount of effort (Effort, Story Points, or Size) forecasted per sprint.
- Question forecast results where the effort of an item is near to or greater than the team’s velocity, as this may indicate issues with your estimates or the team’s capacity.
By thoroughly reviewing the forecast, you can identify potential problems and make adjustments to ensure your sprint planning aligns with your team’s true capabilities.
Determining Required Velocity
Another way to use the forecast tool is to enter different velocity values until all the backlog items are completed within a given set of sprints. This approach can provide an estimate of the velocity required to complete your entire backlog.
You can then compare the required velocity to your team’s current velocity and assess the delta. This information can help you determine what additional resources or strategies may be needed to meet your production demands within the desired timeframe.
By mastering the forecasting capabilities in Azure Boards, you can empower your team to plan and deliver their work more effectively, ensuring your product roadmap remains on track. Happy forecasting!